Researchers from Finland, Denmark, and Sweden have raised concerns over the credibility of existing research on the offshore iGaming market, arguing that much of the data used to assess illegal gambling activity in the Nordic region is unreliable and politically motivated.
In a study published on 23 January, the academics reviewed 32 reports examining offshore iGaming activity in Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Norway. Their analysis found that the majority of studies — 19 out of 24 — relied heavily on data provided by private analytics firm H2 Gambling Capital.
According to the researchers, H2 Gambling Capital does not publicly disclose its methodology and has been shown to provide inconsistent market estimates for identical time periods, undermining the comparability and robustness of conclusions drawn from its data.
The review also highlights a clear pattern in industry-funded research, which the authors say tends to significantly overestimate the size of the illegal gambling market across the Nordic countries.
Political and commercial incentives
The researchers argue that many studies are commissioned by stakeholders with specific political or commercial objectives. In particular:
Licensed operators allegedly inflate estimates of offshore market share
The inflated figures are then used to justify calls for lower gambling taxes and softer regulatory requirements
