Banning Prediction Markets May Boost Interest, Study Finds

Analytics firm CasinoReviews examined search query data across 51 countries between September 2025 and September 2026, finding that restrictions on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi may actually be driving greater interest rather than deterring it.

The study found that 8 of the 15 countries with the highest share of Polymarket-related searches, and 4 of the 15 for Kalshi, currently restrict or fully ban prediction markets. Search interest in Polymarket also proved considerably more globally distributed than interest in Kalshi: in the US, Kalshi accounts for 21% of search interest compared to 19% for Polymarket, but in most other countries, Kalshi's share falls below 10%. The report's authors specifically highlighted Polymarket's continued activity in countries where the platform is blocked, noting the company is hiring staff with Mandarin language skills and preparing prediction markets tied to Lunar New Year, despite access to Polymarket being restricted within China by the country's firewall.

CasinoReviews suggested that geoblocking does not necessarily reduce interest in prediction markets, pointing to Hungary's ban, which relies on IP-address blocking that can be circumvented using a VPN, a workaround Chinese users also employ to access the platform. The report also noted that prediction markets more often attract media attention due to elections and geopolitical events than due to regulatory disputes themselves, suggesting that underlying newsworthiness, rather than regulatory status alone, plays a significant role in driving search interest across markets.