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Bernstein Predicts Prediction Markets Will Reach $10 Trillion Annual Volume by 2035
Financial contracts, including crypto and commodities, are expected to overtake sports as the dominant category as the market grows roughly 70% a year.
Annual trading volume on prediction markets could grow from 410 billion dollars in 2026 to 10 trillion dollars by 2035, according to a forecast from Bernstein analysts. The firm projects the market will expand at approximately 70 percent per year over that period.
Financial Contracts Set to Overtake Sports
Bernstein expects sports events to gradually lose ground to financial contracts, including cryptocurrencies, stocks and commodities. Financial contracts could grow from 12 percent of the market in 2025 to 49 percent by 2035, while sports events' share is projected to fall from 61 percent to 38 percent over the same period.
Early signs of this shift are already visible. On Kalshi, the share of cryptocurrency contracts rose from less than 5 percent in January to 20 percent in August, while commodity trading volume on the platform has reached 590 million dollars since the start of the year.
Bernstein also expects new contract formats to emerge, such as products tied to individual company metrics including production volumes, shipments or subscriber growth.
Prediction Markets Could Capture 0.5% of Global Financial Assets
The analysts estimate prediction markets could eventually account for around 0.5 percent of the global financial assets market, translating to roughly 4.7 trillion dollars in annual volume by 2035.
The forecast follows separate reporting that Kalshi users aged 18 to 21 have traded 5.4 billion dollars on the platform since the start of the year.
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