Macquarie Forecasts $187 Billion in Prediction Market Volume for 2026

Macquarie forecasts prediction market taker volume of approximately $187 billion in 2026, about 8.5 times the $22 billion recorded in 2025. The revised estimate reflects continued growth in sports event trading, despite a modest reduction from the firm’s previous projection.

According to Casino.org’s reporting on Macquarie’s research, the latest forecast is below the $190 billion estimate published in September but above an earlier projection of $169 billion. The revision trims expectations without changing the scale of the annual expansion anticipated by the firm. 

The distinction between volume and revenue is essential. The forecast measures the value of trading activity, rather than the fees exchanges retain or the profits they generate. Takers execute against available orders, consuming liquidity supplied by other market participants.

September industry volume reached $20.1 billion, an increase of 1,079% compared with the same month in 2025. Macquarie attributed that growth to improving liquidity, a wider range of available markets and greater consumer awareness, according to Bookmaker Ratings. 

Kalshi Holds 63% of US Sports Contract Volume

Sports contracts remain central to the expansion. EGR reporting reproduced by GambleRss put US sports event contract taker volume at approximately $17 billion in September, with Kalshi accounting for $10.7 billion, or about 63%.

DraftKings generated approximately $623 million and FanDuel $436 million, giving them rounded shares of 4% and 3%, respectively. Other platforms collectively accounted for approximately $5.2 billion. 

Those figures place established sportsbook brands well behind Kalshi in prediction market trading. However, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon cautioned that geographic availability affects the comparison.

According to the reporting, DraftKings and FanDuel offered sports event contracts in states without legal online sports betting, while Kalshi operated across a broader geographic footprint. Their national shares therefore combine markets where their products were available with markets where they were absent.

Beynon identified regulation of sports event contracts as the largest risk to adoption and the category’s long-term potential, EGR reported. The commercial opportunity consequently depends on both consumer demand and the conditions under which platforms can offer their products. 

App Downloads Point to Interest Beyond Current Trading Share

Mobile download figures offer another indication of the bookmakers’ position. During the fourth week of the NFL season, DraftKings captured 11% of prediction market app downloads, while FanDuel accounted for 7%, according to Casino.org.

These percentages describe their shares of category downloads. They do not mean prediction products generated 11% of all DraftKings downloads or 7% of FanDuel downloads.

Beynon said the download positions suggest both companies could gain trading share as geographic availability expands and product awareness improves. Downloads alone, however, do not establish how many users fund accounts, trade regularly or generate exchange fees.

Sports event contracts accounted for 79% of September trading volume on the largest prediction exchange, according to Macquarie’s analysis cited by Bookmaker Ratings. That is a platform-specific measure, separate from the figures describing shares of the wider US sports contract market.

Macquarie expects sports to remain the largest contributor to volume growth through the end of 2026. The firm also identified the US midterm election cycle as a potential source of increased political-event trading in the remaining months of the year.