Blask: Brazil Betting Ban Cut Licensed Traffic 74% in First Week

Brazil's betting ban reduced traffic to licensed operators by 74% within its first week, but has not yet produced a comparable surge in offshore usage, according to a new report from iGaming analytics company Blask.

The study compares Brazil's September 2026 prohibition with India's real-money gaming restrictions introduced in August 2025, using behavioural panels, search data and public market statistics.

Blask estimates that Brazil closed a regulated online betting and casino market worth $6.6 billion in annual GGR only 21 months after its launch.

Its central argument is that closing regulated supply does not necessarily eliminate gambling demand. However, the Brazilian data currently cover only the first days of the prohibition, while the longer-term conclusion is largely based on what happened in India.

Licensed Traffic Fell 74% in Six Days

By October 1, six days after Brazil introduced Provisional Measure No. 1,394, the share of Blask's Brazilian panel visiting licensed betting sites was 74% below its normal level.

Search demand for licensed brands subsequently fell approximately 82% below the pre-ban baseline.

Offshore operators behaved differently.

Their branded search demand declined by between 7% and 17%, while actual reach to unlicensed sites remained within 11% of normal levels throughout the first week.

This distinction is important. Blask has not yet recorded a mass transfer of Brazilian players to offshore sites. Its behavioural data indicate that many regulated customers initially stopped betting rather than immediately switching.

The company nevertheless notes that 57% of Brazilian bettors in its panel had already visited at least one unlicensed gambling site during the 90 days before the prohibition.

India Shows 63% of Former Players Continued Betting

Blask uses India as its main indication of what could happen over a longer period.

Researchers tracked the same users before and after India's August 2025 real-money gaming ban. The fixed cohort included 19,924 people in India, with 31,785 Brazilian users serving as a control group.

Three months after the Indian restrictions, 63 out of every 100 people who had previously used legal services were still gambling. Of those 100 former users, 61 had moved to offshore platforms.

By comparison, 74 out of every 100 equivalent Brazilian users were still betting during a period when Brazil had no ban.

Blask calculates that Indian betting participation therefore remained at about 86% of the level observed in the Brazilian control group.

Applying that ratio to Brazil's estimated 25.2 million regulated bettors produces a projection of roughly 21.6 million people continuing to bet after the market closure, predominantly through offshore services.

The company stresses that 21.6 million is a projection based on the Indian experience, not a measurement of current Brazilian offshore activity.

Offshore Acquisition Shifted Away From Search in India

India also provides evidence about how unlicensed operators adapted their acquisition strategies after the ban.

Before and after the restrictions, the share of offshore traffic arriving through search engines fell from 16% to 8%.

At the same time, traffic attributed to pop-under advertising networks, redirect trackers and pirate streaming sites increased from 21% to 41%.

Blask argues that this shift matters for enforcement because these acquisition channels are generally harder to monitor than conventional search results.

India blocked 8,376 URLs during the period analysed, but offshore reach among users who had already used unlicensed sites remained approximately level with the Brazilian control group.

Brazil Faces Tax and Employment Costs

The report also examines the economic consequences of dismantling the regulated market.

Brazil collected approximately $1.8 billion in federal betting taxes during 2025.

Blask cites government estimates suggesting the shutdown could result in approximately $2.4 billion in additional lost public revenue through 2028.

The regulated sector also supported an estimated 15,500 direct and indirect jobs, including roles in technology, cybersecurity, compliance, legal services and digital marketing.

Those positions are not necessarily all expected to disappear, but operators have already begun reducing Brazilian teams since the prohibition was announced.

Brazil's First Week Does Not Yet Prove an Offshore Shift

The comparison with India supports the possibility that gambling demand can survive a prohibition and migrate toward unlicensed supply, but Brazil has not yet completed that transition.

Blask's own first-week data show licensed traffic collapsing while offshore reach remains broadly stable.

The report therefore separates what has already happened from what it expects to happen next.

Brazil provides clear evidence that a government can shut the regulated channel rapidly. Whether most of its former players ultimately migrate offshore, stop gambling or return to a regulated market if the prohibition is reversed will require a longer observation period.