Evolution Shares Drop 4.4% After Brazil Gambling Ban

Evolution shares fell as much as 4.4% in Stockholm trading on September 28 as investors assessed the impact of Brazil's ban on sports betting and online casino games.

The live casino and gaming supplier's shares recovered part of the decline during the session and closed 2.5% lower at SEK795.60 on Nasdaq Stockholm.

The sell-off followed Brazil's September 25 provisional measure banning online betting and casino operations. New customer deposits were stopped immediately, while licensed websites and apps are scheduled to become unavailable from October 6.

Pareto Expects Revenue Impact of Several Percent

Investment bank Pareto estimates that the Brazilian shutdown will have a low to mid-single-digit negative impact on Evolution's revenue in the short term.

Latin America generated 8.6% of Evolution's revenue during the previous 12 months, according to the bank, with Brazil representing the company's largest market in the region.

The figures make Brazil relevant to Evolution even though the supplier does not operate consumer-facing gambling brands itself. Its products are distributed through casino operators, meaning a decline in activity among licensed Brazilian customers can flow through to supplier revenue.

Pareto did not provide a specific revenue figure for Brazil alone.

Offshore Operators Could Reduce Medium-Term Impact

Pareto expects the longer-term effect to be smaller if some Brazilian gambling demand moves back to offshore operators that already use Evolution products.

Before Brazil's regulated market opened in January 2025, Latin America accounted for around 7% of Evolution's revenue. According to Pareto, much of that activity was generated through offshore gambling operators.

The comparison suggests that Evolution already had substantial exposure to Brazilian and wider Latin American customers before locally licensed operators became the main route into the market.

Any return of demand to offshore platforms could therefore offset part of the revenue lost from regulated operators, although the scale of such migration remains uncertain.

Brazilian authorities are simultaneously increasing enforcement against unauthorised gambling websites, which could limit how much activity offshore operators are able to capture.

Brazil Adds New Uncertainty for Gambling Suppliers

Brazil became one of the industry's most closely watched regulated markets after its federal licensing system launched in January 2025.

The September prohibition has abruptly changed that outlook for operators and suppliers that invested in the country.

For Evolution, the immediate financial question is how much revenue disappears when licensed operators shut down and how much customer activity, if any, eventually shifts to platforms elsewhere in its distribution network.

Pareto's assessment points to a measurable short-term impact but a potentially smaller effect over the medium term if offshore operators regain part of the Brazilian market.