H2 Forecasts $4.6 Billion Shift to Brazil’s Illegal Gambling Market

Brazil’s online betting ban could redirect approximately R$25 billion, around $4.6 billion, in annual gambling expenditure to unlicensed operators, according to H2 Gambling Capital.

The consultancy’s central scenario would increase the illegal market from approximately R$17 billion to R$42 billion annually, equivalent to roughly $3.1 billion and $7.7 billion respectively.

The estimates concern gambling expenditure on a revenue basis, rather than the total face value of every wager placed.

Most Regulated Spending Expected to Continue

H2 estimated the regulated market’s pre-ban annual run rate at approximately R$40 billion. Its model assumes around 60% would migrate to unlicensed operators, while approximately R$15 billion would leave gambling in the short term.

The projected migration ranges from R$20 billion to R$30 billion, depending on payment restrictions and how long prohibition remains in place. These are scenarios, rather than measured post-ban results. 

Survey Identifies Existing Offshore Use

The analysis drew on a November 2025 survey of 2,451 Brazilian online gamblers. Some 39% reported using unlicensed sites after regulation, with that group accounting for around 60% of reported expenditure.

That expenditure share relates to respondents who used unlicensed sites; it does not establish that every real they spent went offshore.

Reopening Remains a Forecast

H2 considers a regulated-market return in 2027 likely, potentially covering both sports betting and online casino. That remains the consultancy’s expectation, rather than an announced reopening timetable.

The International Betting Integrity Association has separately cited H2’s migration estimate in arguing that prohibition risks moving activity beyond licensed monitoring and consumer safeguards.